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Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba

Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Modestas Bukauskas by S-DEC
Modestas Bukauskas
Modestas Bukauskas
Age 31 · Elo 1540
WWLWW
76 days since last fight
vs
Ion Cutelaba
Ion Cutelaba
Age 31 · Elo 1511
WWLWL
76 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Modestas BukauskasIon Cutelaba
Claude Claude: Modestas Bukauskas 35% Claude: Ion Cutelaba 65% 35% 65% GPT GPT: Modestas Bukauskas 35% GPT: Ion Cutelaba 65% 35% 65% Elo Elo: Modestas Bukauskas 54% Elo: Ion Cutelaba 46% 54% 46%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Modestas BukauskasIon Cutelaba
Strikes landed / min Modestas Bukauskas Strikes landed / min: 3.14 3.14 Ion Cutelaba Strikes landed / min: 4.30 4.30 Strikes absorbed / min Modestas Bukauskas Strikes absorbed / min: 3.86 3.86 Ion Cutelaba Strikes absorbed / min: 3.38 3.38 Striking accuracy Modestas Bukauskas Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Ion Cutelaba Striking accuracy: 43% 43% Striking defense Modestas Bukauskas Striking defense: 50% 50% Ion Cutelaba Striking defense: 46% 46% Takedowns / 15 min Modestas Bukauskas Takedowns / 15 min: 0.23 0.23 Ion Cutelaba Takedowns / 15 min: 4.17 4.17 Takedown defense Modestas Bukauskas Takedown defense: 82% 82% Ion Cutelaba Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min Modestas Bukauskas Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1 Ion Cutelaba Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.1 0.1

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 55% 55% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 70% 70% GPT: Submission 10% 10% GPT: Decision 20% 20%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Cutelaba holds a significant edge in offensive wrestling (4.17 vs 0.37 TDAvg) and striking power. While Bukauskas has shown improved submission skills with his recent guillotine win, Cutelaba's aggressive blitzing style and superior takedown game will likely overwhelm him. Bukauskas absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute with only 50% defense, making him vulnerable to Cutelaba's power shots. Their common opponent analysis favors Cutelaba, who defeated Khalil Rountree Jr. while Bukauskas lost via KO. Cutelaba's recent split decision win shows improved fight IQ and cardio management, suggesting he can maintain his dangerous output longer than in previous fights.

GPT
Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO, 65% confidence

Based on the stats, Ion Cutelaba has a higher strike volume and takedown average than Modestas Bukauskas. Additionally, Cutelaba's performance against common opponents has been superior.