Light Heavyweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
FINAL: Modestas Bukauskas by S-DEC
Modestas Bukauskas
Age 31 · Elo 1540
WWLWW
76 days since last fight
vs
Ion Cutelaba
Age 31 · Elo 1511
WWLWL
76 days since last fight
Who wins, by source
Modestas BukauskasIon Cutelaba
Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.
Tale of the tape
Modestas BukauskasIon Cutelaba
Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.
How it ends
KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.
The analysis
Claude
Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO, 65% confidence
Cutelaba holds a significant edge in offensive wrestling (4.17 vs 0.37 TDAvg) and striking power. While Bukauskas has shown improved submission skills with his recent guillotine win, Cutelaba's aggressive blitzing style and superior takedown game will likely overwhelm him. Bukauskas absorbs 4.11 strikes per minute with only 50% defense, making him vulnerable to Cutelaba's power shots. Their common opponent analysis favors Cutelaba, who defeated Khalil Rountree Jr. while Bukauskas lost via KO. Cutelaba's recent split decision win shows improved fight IQ and cardio management, suggesting he can maintain his dangerous output longer than in previous fights.
GPT
Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO, 65% confidence
Based on the stats, Ion Cutelaba has a higher strike volume and takedown average than Modestas Bukauskas. Additionally, Cutelaba's performance against common opponents has been superior.