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Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee

Featherweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Daniel Santos by U-DEC
Daniel Santos
Daniel Santos
Age 30 · Elo 1570
WWL
707 days since last fight
vs
JeongYeong Lee
JeongYeong Lee
Age 29 · Elo 1494*
LWW
454 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Daniel SantosJeongYeong Lee
Claude Claude: Daniel Santos 65% Claude: JeongYeong Lee 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Daniel Santos 65% GPT: JeongYeong Lee 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Daniel Santos 61% Elo: JeongYeong Lee 39% 61% 39%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Daniel SantosJeongYeong Lee
Strikes landed / min Daniel Santos Strikes landed / min: 4.26 4.26 JeongYeong Lee Strikes landed / min: 2.84 2.84 Strikes absorbed / min Daniel Santos Strikes absorbed / min: 5.12 5.12 JeongYeong Lee Strikes absorbed / min: 2.81 2.81 Striking accuracy Daniel Santos Striking accuracy: 37% 37% JeongYeong Lee Striking accuracy: 52% 52% Striking defense Daniel Santos Striking defense: 50% 50% JeongYeong Lee Striking defense: 50% 50% Takedowns / 15 min Daniel Santos Takedowns / 15 min: 1.90 1.90 JeongYeong Lee Takedowns / 15 min: 0.93 0.93 Takedown defense Daniel Santos Takedown defense: 73% 73% JeongYeong Lee Takedown defense: 76% 76% Sub attempts / 15 min Daniel Santos Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - JeongYeong Lee Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 10% 10% Claude: Decision 65% 65%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 25% 25% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Daniel Santos by Decision, 65% confidence

Santos brings significantly higher striking volume (4.26 SLPM vs Lee's 2.84) which should allow him to outwork Lee over three rounds. While Lee has better striking accuracy (52% vs 37%), Santos' output advantage should overcome this deficit. Santos also has a stronger takedown average (1.9 vs 0.93) which gives him a path to control portions of the fight. Lee's reach advantage (73" vs 67") is substantial, but Santos has shown better adaptability against rangier opponents and his aggressive pressure style should neutralize Lee's reach. Santos' recent upward trend contrasts with Lee's mixed results, including two recent KO/TKO losses that raise questions about his durability.

GPT
Daniel Santos by Decision, 65% confidence

Daniel Santos possesses a higher significant strike rate and takedown average. Although JeongYeong Lee has a slightly better striking accuracy and takedown defense, Santos' volume and pressure are likely to give him the edge in a decision.