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Mike Malott vs Charles Radtke

Welterweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Mike Malott by KO/TKO Punch
Mike Malott
Mike Malott
Age 33 · Elo 1576
LLWWW
189 days since last fight
vs
Charles Radtke
Charles Radtke
Age 34 · Elo 1508
LWLW
181 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Mike MalottCharles Radtke
Claude Claude: Mike Malott 65% Claude: Charles Radtke 35% 65% 35% GPT GPT: Mike Malott 65% GPT: Charles Radtke 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Mike Malott 60% Elo: Charles Radtke 40% 60% 40%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Mike MalottCharles Radtke
Strikes landed / min Mike Malott Strikes landed / min: 4.02 4.02 Charles Radtke Strikes landed / min: 3.38 3.38 Strikes absorbed / min Mike Malott Strikes absorbed / min: 3.09 3.09 Charles Radtke Strikes absorbed / min: 3.03 3.03 Striking accuracy Mike Malott Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Charles Radtke Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Mike Malott Striking defense: 56% 56% Charles Radtke Striking defense: 56% 56% Takedowns / 15 min Mike Malott Takedowns / 15 min: 1.63 1.63 Charles Radtke Takedowns / 15 min: 0.59 0.59 Takedown defense Mike Malott Takedown defense: 57% 57% Charles Radtke Takedown defense: 100% 100% Sub attempts / 15 min Mike Malott Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.7 0.7 Charles Radtke Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 20% 20% Claude: Submission 45% 45% Claude: Decision 35% 35%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 10% 10% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 75% 75%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Mike Malott by Submission, 65% confidence

This welterweight clash pits Malott's well-rounded game against Radtke's striking-focused approach. Malott's 4-inch height advantage and superior grappling credentials (2.27 TDs per fight, 0.8 submissions) create a clear path to victory against Radtke, who has perfect TDD (100%) but against limited competition. The key dynamic will be Radtke's ability to maintain distance and defend takedowns against a larger, more technically diverse opponent. While Radtke has shown good striking defense (56%) and accuracy (53%), Malott's ability to threaten in multiple phases will likely force defensive errors. Malott's recent losses have come against higher-caliber opposition, while his finishing instincts remain sharp, particularly on the ground where Radtke is less tested.

GPT
Mike Malott by Decision, 65% confidence

Based on the data, Mike Malott has a stronger takedown game and higher striking volume than Charles Radtke. Despite Radtke's superior striking accuracy and defense, Malott's takedown threat can disrupt Radtke's striking rhythm. The fight is likely to go to a decision due to both fighters' lack of finishing ability as indicated by their zero finish rates.