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Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec

Lightweight · Prelims · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

FINAL: Benoit Saint Denis by SUB Arm Triangle
Benoit Saint Denis
Benoit Saint Denis
Age 29 · Elo 1608
LLWWW
399 days since last fight
vs
Kyle Prepolec
Kyle Prepolec
Age 35 · Elo 1426*
LL
2065 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Benoit Saint DenisKyle Prepolec
Claude Claude: Benoit Saint Denis 80% Claude: Kyle Prepolec 20% 80% 20% GPT GPT: Benoit Saint Denis 65% GPT: Kyle Prepolec 35% 65% 35% Elo Elo: Benoit Saint Denis 74% Elo: Kyle Prepolec 26% 74% 26%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Benoit Saint DenisKyle Prepolec
Strikes landed / min Benoit Saint Denis Strikes landed / min: 5.17 5.17 Kyle Prepolec Strikes landed / min: 3.20 3.20 Strikes absorbed / min Benoit Saint Denis Strikes absorbed / min: 4.98 4.98 Kyle Prepolec Strikes absorbed / min: 4.70 4.70 Striking accuracy Benoit Saint Denis Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Kyle Prepolec Striking accuracy: 34% 34% Striking defense Benoit Saint Denis Striking defense: 41% 41% Kyle Prepolec Striking defense: 54% 54% Takedowns / 15 min Benoit Saint Denis Takedowns / 15 min: 3.97 3.97 Kyle Prepolec Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Benoit Saint Denis Takedown defense: 68% 68% Kyle Prepolec Takedown defense: 40% 40% Sub attempts / 15 min Benoit Saint Denis Sub attempts / 15 min: 1.2 1.2 Kyle Prepolec Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 65% 65% Claude: Submission 20% 20% Claude: Decision 15% 15%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 20% 20% GPT: Submission 15% 15% GPT: Decision 65% 65%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO, 80% confidence

Saint Denis holds significant advantages across multiple dimensions despite his recent setbacks. His southpaw-vs-southpaw matchup against Prepolec favors his higher-volume striking (5.17 SLPM vs 3.2) and vastly superior grappling metrics. Prepolec's 40% TDD will be severely tested against Saint Denis' 3.97 takedowns per fight and 1.2 submission average. Prepolec's long layoff (last fought in 2019) and historically negative strike differential (-1.5) suggest he'll be overwhelmed by Saint Denis' pressure and finishing ability. While Saint Denis has dropped his last three fights, they were against elite competition, and this matchup represents a significant step down in competition level.

GPT
Benoit Saint Denis by Decision, 65% confidence

Benoit Saint Denis has a higher strike volume and accuracy. His takedown average and defense also outperform Kyle Prepolec's. Even though Kyle has better strike defense, his overall stats are weaker.