Brad Katona vs Bekzat Almakhan

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This matchup heavily favors Katona based on the striking metrics alone. Katona's 4.84 SLPM dwarfs Almakhan's mere 0.2 SLPM, indicating a massive output disparity. Almakhan's striking defense (30%) is significantly worse than Katona's (50%), making him vulnerable to Katona's high-volume approach. Katona also brings a substantial grappling advantage with 1.88 TDs per fight compared to Almakhan's non-existent takedown game (0% accuracy). Almakhan's UFC debut showed severe striking deficiencies, absorbing 4.53 strikes per minute while landing almost nothing in return. While Katona has lost his last three fights, the level of competition he's faced is substantially higher than Almakhan's, and his technical fundamentals remain sound.

Brad Katona has a significant advantage in striking volume and accuracy, as well as takedown average and defense. Bekzat Almakhan's low striking volume and accuracy, coupled with poor takedown accuracy and defense, make it difficult for him to pose a significant threat to Katona.