Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Silva brings superior striking metrics (5.19 SLPM vs Grasso's 4.19) with better accuracy (47% vs 41%) and significantly better defensive striking (64% vs 58%). Silva's exceptional takedown defense (91%) will neutralize Grasso's already modest takedown game (40% accuracy). While Grasso has submission threats (0.7 SubAvg), Silva's ability to maintain distance and control the striking exchanges will be the difference-maker. Silva's recent form shows consistent improvement with 5 straight wins, while Grasso has dropped her last two bouts, indicating a momentum shift in the division. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Silva's counter-striking approach.

Natalia Silva has a higher striking volume, better strike accuracy, and superior defense, which gives her the advantage in stand-up exchanges. Although Alexa Grasso has a slightly better takedown average, Silva's takedown defense is significantly higher, suggesting that she'll be able to keep the fight standing where she has the advantage.