Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Data caveat first: the dataCompleteness block flags both men as having zero completed UFC fights on record, while the recent-form log shows each with two UFC finishes in 2026. The per-minute numbers (McMillen 13.54 SLPM, Rahiki 7.75 SLPM) are therefore drawn from a tiny, possibly non-UFC sample and should be read as directional only. What is reliable: both are undefeated Contender Series graduates (McMillen 11-0, Rahiki 9-0), both are orthodox strikers, and both finished their last two UFC opponents by KO. The separating factors are physical and stylistic. McMillen is 6'0" with a 74" reach against Rahiki at 5'8" and 72"; four inches of height at featherweight is significant for a fighter whose profile is high-output range striking, and his last finish came via a knee which suggests he punishes opponents who have to close distance. Rahiki is the more concentrated power puncher (100% finish rate across his three logged bouts, all by strikes) and at 24 is four years younger, but his indicated absorption rate (5.9 SApM) against a fighter who throws at nearly double his volume points to Rahiki eating a lot of leather while hunting for one shot. McMillen's 50-day turnaround from the Montes KO is short but he took no visible damage there; Rahiki's 127-day gap is normal. The market has McMillen at 57% with a weak 14-point spread, and I land close to that but slightly higher on McMillen because the length-plus-volume combination is the harder problem for a shorter power puncher to solve over three rounds. The risk is obvious: Rahiki has ended every fight early and McMillen's aggressive output leaves openings. Confidence capped at 60 given the debut-level sample.

McMillen's supplied statistics favor him in a striking-led matchup: he lands 13.54 significant strikes per minute versus Rahiki's 7.75 while absorbing fewer, producing a substantially stronger striking differential. His listed reach advantage could help him establish distance and accumulate scoring exchanges. Rahiki's slightly higher accuracy and submission activity offer counterarguments, but neither fighter has demonstrated reliable offensive takedown production in this dataset. Decision is a cautious selection because striking volume alone does not establish finishing power. Confidence is limited by missing sample sizes, opponent quality, durability evidence and weight-class information; McMillen's unusually high output should not be assumed sustainable. This prediction assumes three rounds, and method probabilities are conditional on McMillen winning.