- Tarin's listed 7.6 SLpM would nearly double Aldrich's 3.92 output; Aldrich has never won a volume battle against a fresher, busier opponent
- Southpaw-vs-southpaw mirror neutralizes Aldrich's closed-stance experience edge and makes it a lead-hand/kicking fight where Tarin's height plays
- Aldrich has gone to decision in 8 of last 9 UFC fights and has never been finished, so Tarin's 0% UFC finish rate suggests 15 minutes
- Tarin's 7.0 SApM absorption rate is a real defensive leak that Aldrich's 46% accuracy and 61% defense can exploit on the counter
Write-up
Tarin's UFCStats data is flagged as a debut-level sample (her Kareckaite win is in the fight log but not the stat record), so this is priced from the market prior (67% Tarin), physical profile and Aldrich's known ceiling rather than hard numbers. Tarin is 21, unbeaten at 8-0, two inches taller at 5'7" and fights as a high-volume southpaw; her listed 7.6 SLpM and 7.0 SApM point to an open, high-output style that leaks defensively. Aldrich is the polar opposite: a 33-year-old southpaw who has gone to a decision in eight of her last nine, absorbing 4.34 per minute against 3.92 landed with a 61% strike defense that has kept her competitive against Lee, Horth and De La Rosa. The southpaw-vs-southpaw mirror removes Aldrich's usual open-stance lead-hand advantage. The path for Aldrich is to make it ugly, stuff entries (67% TDD) and rely on Tarin's inexperience over 15 minutes; the path for Tarin is simply to outwork a fighter who has never shown a high enough pace to win rounds against volume. I take Tarin but shade under the market: Aldrich has never been finished in 22 pro fights and a 21-year-old with one UFC bout at -245 is a big ask against a veteran who wins close, scrappy rounds. Confidence capped due to Tarin's thin data.
- Tarin's significant-strike output is approximately 1.94 times Aldrich's, supporting a potential volume advantage.
- Aldrich has better striking defense, 61% versus 57%, while Tarin's high absorption creates counterstriking opportunities.
- Aldrich's 67% takedown defense exceeds Tarin's 50%, but her 25% takedown accuracy limits confidence in a wrestling-led approach.
- Missing sample sizes and finishing histories make the statistical edge uncertain rather than decisive.
Write-up
Tarin gets a narrow edge from her substantially higher significant-strike output: 7.60 landed per minute versus Aldrich's 3.92, with comparable accuracy. Her +0.60 striking differential also contrasts with Aldrich's -0.42, suggesting a potential advantage in sustained exchanges. However, Tarin absorbs 7.00 significant strikes per minute, giving Aldrich opportunities to counter effectively. Aldrich's stronger striking and takedown defense could disrupt Tarin's pace, while Tarin's 50% takedown defense offers another route for Aldrich despite her modest wrestling success. Decision is the most defensible selection without reliable finishing data. Unknown sample sizes, unspecified weight class and missing recent-form information limit confidence. This assumes three scheduled rounds; method percentages are conditional on a Tarin victory.