Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Elo has this near even (53/47) while the market is at -620, and I side with the market here because the Elo is carrying Salikhov's peak (1587) more than his present state. Salikhov is 42 years old, has been knocked out in the first round by Uros Medic and Randy Brown in two of his last four, and arrives off a 302-day layoff; his recentTrend of -42 is the sharpest decline on this card. Bahamondes is moving up from 155 to 170 after decision losses to Fiziev and Musayev, but at 6'3 with a 75-inch reach he is already bigger than the 5'11, 70-inch Salikhov, and he lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute against Salikhov's 3.37. The threat is specific and real: Salikhov's spinning kicks and counter right hand still carry finishing power and Bahamondes' 55% striking defense with 4.07 absorbed per minute means he eats shots. But Bahamondes has never been knocked out in the UFC, and the last two Salikhov losses show a fighter whose chin is now the weakest part of his game. Expect Bahamondes to use length, kick the lead leg, and overwhelm with volume as Salikhov slows; the finish likely comes in the second round once the pace catches up with a 42-year-old who has not fought in ten months. I stay a bit under the 81% market number only because Salikhov's one-strike equalizer makes this a fight with a genuine, if narrow, upset path.

Bahamondes has the stronger statistical case for winning rounds: 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute versus 3.37, with a +1.92 striking differential compared with Salikhov's +0.41. Sustained combinations and distance management could let him outwork Salikhov, although career averages are not opponent-adjusted forecasts. Salikhov's better striking defense and accuracy make counterstriking a meaningful threat, particularly because Bahamondes absorbs 4.07 significant strikes per minute. Salikhov also offers a wrestling alternative, but his 32% takedown accuracy against 70% takedown defense does not suggest reliable control. The undefined weight class and unconfirmed bout length limit confidence; this prediction assumes three rounds at an agreed weight. Method probabilities are conditional on a Bahamondes victory.