Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden Santos

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Market has Belgaroui at 83% while provisional Elo says only 57%; the truth sits in between but much closer to the market. Elo is under-crediting three consecutive finishes (Iwasaki on DWCS, Bekoev, and a knee KO of Abdul-Malik, an undefeated prospect) because he only has one rated UFC bout. Belgaroui is 6'5" with a 79" reach, a former Glory kickboxer whose single UFC stat line (6.1 SLpM at 64% accuracy, just 2.17 absorbed) is small-sample but consistent with everything on his tape: he controls range with long knees and straight punches and rarely gets touched. Santos gives up five inches of height and four inches of reach, and his 52% strike defense is the worst number on this card for a fighter whose game is standing and trading (5.67 SLpM). His 86% TDD is his best asset, but Belgaroui attempts 0.29 takedowns per fight so it barely matters. Santos was submitted by Susurkaev in his last bout and has lost 2 of 3 in the UFC, with both wins being decisions; he has never shown the finishing power to punish a taller striker who gets careless. The Dutch striker's known weakness is being taken down by wrestlers (Tulio decision loss), and Santos is not that. Round 2 KO as Santos's defense breaks down under knees and body work.

Belgaroui has the stronger supplied striking profile: 6.10 significant strikes landed per minute at 64% accuracy versus Santos's 5.67 at 55%. His lower absorption rate and superior striking defense suggest an advantage in sustained stand-up exchanges. Santos's clearest adjustment is to mix takedowns into his offense against Belgaroui's 66% takedown defense, but his modest takedown rate does not establish a reliable control advantage. Decision is the preferred outcome because verified durability and finishing data are unavailable. Confidence is limited by unspecified sample sizes and opposition quality; zero-filled finishing and positional fields are not treated as established performance measures. This assumes three scheduled rounds; method probabilities are conditional on a Belgaroui victory.