Market has Belgaroui at 83% while provisional Elo says only 57%; the truth sits in between but much closer to the market. Elo is under-crediting three consecutive finishes (Iwasaki on DWCS, Bekoev, and a knee KO of Abdul-Malik, an undefeated prospect) because he only has one rated UFC bout. Belgaroui is 6'5" with a 79" reach, a former Glory kickboxer whose single UFC stat line (6.1 SLpM at 64% accuracy, just 2.17 absorbed) is small-sample but consistent with everything on his tape: he controls range with long knees and straight punches and rarely gets touched. Santos gives up five inches of height and four inches of reach, and his 52% strike defense is the worst number on this card for a fighter whose game is standing and trading (5.67 SLpM). His 86% TDD is his best asset, but Belgaroui attempts 0.29 takedowns per fight so it barely matters. Santos was submitted by Susurkaev in his last bout and has lost 2 of 3 in the UFC, with both wins being decisions; he has never shown the finishing power to punish a taller striker who gets careless. The Dutch striker's known weakness is being taken down by wrestlers (Tulio decision loss), and Santos is not that. Round 2 KO as Santos's defense breaks down under knees and body work.

Belgaroui has the stronger supplied striking profile: 6.10 significant strikes landed per minute at 64% accuracy versus Santos's 5.67 at 55%. His lower absorption rate and superior striking defense suggest an advantage in sustained stand-up exchanges. Santos's clearest adjustment is to mix takedowns into his offense against Belgaroui's 66% takedown defense, but his modest takedown rate does not establish a reliable control advantage. Decision is the preferred outcome because verified durability and finishing data are unavailable. Confidence is limited by unspecified sample sizes and opposition quality; zero-filled finishing and positional fields are not treated as established performance measures. This assumes three scheduled rounds; method probabilities are conditional on a Belgaroui victory.