Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Market (65%) and Elo (58%) both favor Fiorot, and the stylistic data supports that order. Fiorot is the higher-output, better-defended striker by a wide margin: 5.66 SLpM at 66% defense against Grasso's 4.11 SLpM at 58% defense, a +2.08 strike differential versus Grasso's +0.40. Fiorot's 5'7" frame and long, straight kicking game let her fight at a range where Grasso's boxing - which is at its best inside the pocket - struggles to land cleanly; Grasso was outworked at range by both Shevchenko and Natalia Silva, and this is the same problem. Grasso's counter is the Barber knockout and her opportunism (the Shevchenko RNC), and her 0.7 sub average is a real threat if Fiorot gets careless in a scramble, but Fiorot's 87% takedown defense makes that entry unlikely. The Shevchenko common opponent produced identical results (both lost decisions), so it doesn't separate them beyond confirming both are one step below the champ. Two soft factors cut against Fiorot: a 323-day layoff at age 36, and a Noche UFC crowd in Glendale that will be firmly behind Grasso in what may be a close-round fight - judges in Arizona have been swayed before. Grasso's 'Downward' trend and -9 Elo drift, versus Fiorot's +12, tilt me to Fiorot by unanimous decision in a fight where she wins four rounds on volume and distance.

Fiorot has the stronger statistical profile for a distance-striking fight: she lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute versus Grasso's 4.11, with a +2.08 striking differential versus +0.40. Her lateral movement and long-range attacks should help her accumulate scoring offense while limiting Grasso's boxing combinations. Fiorot's 87% takedown defense makes sustained offensive wrestling a difficult route for Grasso, while Grasso's 54% takedown defense gives Fiorot an alternative if exchanges become competitive. Grasso's best opportunities are closing distance behind combinations and exploiting scrambles for submissions. These career averages are not opponent-adjusted, and missing finish data limits certainty. Round 3 assumes a three-round booking; method probabilities are conditional on a Fiorot victory.